Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via O'Hare, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Pittsburgh on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2039 United Flight history →	LAX 09:00	PIT 16:51	12%	7%	0.6%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 00:02 → MSP 05:34DL 430	1h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 07:29 → PIT 10:33DL 845	7h 31m	99%	93%
American Details →	LAX 00:03 → DFW 05:21AA 2490	1h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → PIT 11:11AA 1583	8h 08m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	2h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → PIT 16:30DL 1188	7h 55m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413	3h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → PIT 22:52DL 1134	8h 37m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:00 → ATL 18:37DL 528	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 21:14 → PIT 23:00DL 2583	9h 00m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 16:57 → PIT 18:47DL 3122	9h 47m	99%	85%
United Details →	LAX 05:10 → ORD 11:27UA 580	1h 13m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → PIT 15:23UA 3432 · flown by Republic	7h 13m	96%	84%
American Details →	LAX 06:00 → JFK 14:37AA 118	1h 52m New York	JFK 16:29 → PIT 18:09AA 4734 · flown by Republic	9h 09m	97%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LAX 07:12 → CLT 15:05AA 1952	48m Charlotte	CLT 15:53 → PIT 17:28AA 2307	7h 16m	65%	51%
American Details →	LAX 11:35 → ORD 17:59AA 2891	56m Chicago	ORD 18:55 → PIT 21:35AA 1051	7h 00m	75%	49%
Delta Details →	LAX 10:45 → BOS 19:20DL 437	50m Boston	BOS 20:10 → PIT 22:13DL 5679 · flown by Republic	8h 28m	64%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON