Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Pasco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pasco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	2h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:47 → PSC 11:38DL 3892 · flown by SkyWest	6h 03m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:55 → SLC 12:45DL 1434	3h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:52 → PSC 16:38DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest	6h 43m	98%	89%
Alaska Details →	LAX 16:52 → SEA 19:29AS 698	3h 15m Seattle	SEA 22:44 → PSC 23:43AS 2403 · flown by Horizon	6h 51m	100%	86%
Alaska Details →	LAX 10:00 → SEA 12:48AS 798	3h 40m Seattle	SEA 16:28 → PSC 17:27AS 2367 · flown by Horizon	7h 27m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	LAX 07:15 → SEA 10:00DL 2980	3h 40m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → PSC 14:54DL 3891 · flown by SkyWest	7h 39m	98%	70%
Alaska Details →	LAX 15:49 → SEA 18:31AS 585	3h 04m Seattle	SEA 21:35 → PSC 22:37AS 2417 · flown by Horizon	6h 48m	99%	62%
Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → SEA 09:49AS 748	1h 31m Seattle	SEA 11:20 → PSC 12:19AS 2306 · flown by Horizon	5h 19m	95%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LAX 11:23 → PDX 13:44AS 1355	47m Portland	PDX 14:31 → PSC 15:22AS 2475 · flown by Horizon	3h 59m	69%	57%
Alaska Details →	LAX 12:47 → SEA 15:33AS 1305	55m Seattle	SEA 16:28 → PSC 17:27AS 2367 · flown by Horizon	4h 40m	68%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON