Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 94% chance of reaching Palm Springs on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Palm Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	2h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → PSP 11:41DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest	6h 06m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:55 → SLC 12:45DL 1434	2h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:40 → PSP 16:33DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest	6h 38m	97%	91%
United Details →	LAX 07:30 → SFO 09:06UA 1372	3h 34m San Francisco	SFO 12:40 → PSP 14:20UA 342	6h 50m	99%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON