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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:02, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 462 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:54 RDU 17:57 20% 5% 0.4% 79%
AA 1754 American LAX 09:15 RDU 17:27 27% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:02 → MSP 05:33DL 430 1h 27m Minneapolis MSP 07:00 → RDU 10:31DL 2783 7h 29m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:41 → SLC 14:30DL 1194 3h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 17:52 → RDU 00:02 +1DL 402 9h 21m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:03 → DFW 05:21AA 2490 1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:12 → RDU 11:16AA 2683 8h 13m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → LAX 06:05 → ORD 12:32AA 383 3h 32m Chicago ORD 16:04 → RDU 19:18AA 4503 · flown by Republic 10h 13m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 1h 37m Houston IAH 07:49 → RDU 11:47UA 6148 · flown by Mesa 7h 56m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 15:48 → RDU 17:22DL 2600 8h 22m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:10 → ORD 11:27UA 580 1h 24m Chicago ORD 12:51 → RDU 16:02UA 1142 7h 52m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:19 → DTW 13:46DL 2399 2h 16m Detroit DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407 8h 28m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:14 → JFK 08:19DL 915 48m New York JFK 09:07 → RDU 10:48DL 5097 · flown by Endeavor 7h 34m 74% 64%
UnitedDetails → LAX 11:55 → SFO 13:34UA 1245 52m San Francisco SFO 14:26 → RDU 22:47UA 2199 7h 52m 73% 59%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:00 → ATL 18:37DL 528 48m Atlanta ATL 19:25 → RDU 20:57DL 1518 6h 57m 64% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON