Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 13–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5410 LAX 09:17 → RNO 10:56 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 4099 LAX 08:20 → RNO 09:53 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5410 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:17	RNO 10:56	13%	4%	0.6%	94%
DL 4126 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:50	RNO 18:21	13%	5%	0.6%	90%
UA 1544 United	LAX 13:07	RNO 14:43	13%	10%	0.6%	no record
DL 3902 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 12:58	RNO 14:25	14%	6%	0.6%	91%
DL 4099 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:20	RNO 09:53	14%	3%	0.6%	96%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON