Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 20–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 4001 LAX 14:11 → SAN 15:08 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest UA 1068 LAX 10:33 → SAN 11:33 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4001 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:11	SAN 15:08	20%	8%	0.8%	82%
UA 582 United	LAX 16:30	SAN 17:30	24%	11%	0.6%	no record
DL 3716 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:50	SAN 09:52	27%	13%	0.8%	79%
UA 1068 United	LAX 10:33	SAN 11:33	28%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON