Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4695 LAX 07:36 → SAT 12:51 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2568 LAX 09:55 → SAT 14:53 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4695 Southwest	LAX 07:36	SAT 12:51	9%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 6497 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:33	SAT 14:38	15%	8%	0.6%	84%
DL 2568 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:55	SAT 14:53	16%	5%	0.4%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON