Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 5893 at 12:49, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5893 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 12:49	SBA 13:45	18%	7%	1.0%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	2h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	6h 24m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	LAX 09:55 → SLC 12:45DL 1434	2h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:00 → SBA 16:03DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest	6h 08m	97%	88%
Alaska Details →	LAX 07:00 → PDX 09:21AS 668	1h 26m Portland	PDX 10:47 → SBA 13:05AS 2317 · flown by Horizon	6h 05m	96%	87%
Alaska Details →	LAX 14:27 → PDX 16:47AS 1315	1h 01m Portland	PDX 17:48 → SBA 20:04AS 2029 · flown by Horizon	5h 37m	87%	77%
Alaska Details →	LAX 10:00 → SEA 12:48AS 798	3h 11m Seattle	SEA 15:59 → SBA 18:23AS 610	8h 23m	98%	76%
United Details →	LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703	57m Denver	DEN 11:26 → SBA 13:02UA 671	6h 02m	89%	71%
United Details →	LAX 07:30 → SFO 09:06UA 1372	1h 23m San Francisco	SFO 10:29 → SBA 11:52UA 1578	4h 22m	87%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON