Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2980 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 2980 LAX 07:15 → SEA 10:00 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest OO 5736 LAX 08:33 → SEA 11:21 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2980 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:15	SEA 10:00	13%	4%	0.5%	92%
DL 1045 Delta Flight history →	LAX 12:09	SEA 14:55	15%	4%	0.4%	89%
DL 2606 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:00	SEA 16:40	16%	4%	0.5%	84%
DL 304 Delta	LAX 09:35	SEA 12:15	18%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 6047 SkyWest	LAX 16:35	SEA 19:24	19%	7%	0.6%	no record
AS 748 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 07:00	SEA 09:49	19%	4%	0.8%	88%
OO 6043 SkyWest	LAX 12:57	SEA 15:46	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 585 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 15:49	SEA 18:31	20%	5%	0.7%	87%
AA 6438 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 13:03	SEA 15:52	21%	6%	0.6%	91%worse than usual
F9 1177 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 15:04	SEA 17:51	21%	7%	1.5%	82%
AS 698 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 16:52	SEA 19:29	23%	5%	0.7%	91%worse than usual
AS 798 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 10:00	SEA 12:48	24%	5%	0.8%	88%worse than usual
AS 1305 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 12:47	SEA 15:33	25%	4%	0.7%	76%
AS 482 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 09:00	SEA 11:52	26%	5%	0.8%	85%worse than usual
OO 6476 SkyWest	LAX 09:27	SEA 12:15	27%	7%	0.7%	no record
AS 457 Alaska	LAX 08:58	SEA 11:39	27%	5%	0.8%	no record
OO 5736 SkyWest	LAX 08:33	SEA 11:21	29%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON