Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 28 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 781 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 781 LAX 06:00 → SFO 07:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 539 LAX 10:00 → SFO 11:20 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 781 United	LAX 06:00	SFO 07:30	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2503 Southwest	LAX 06:36	SFO 08:03	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1421 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:00	SFO 08:21	17%	5%	0.8%	94%worse than usual
UA 233 United Flight history →	LAX 17:10	SFO 18:38	18%	12%	0.6%	83%
OO 6274 SkyWest	LAX 07:24	SFO 08:55	20%	8%	0.9%	no record
AS 726 Alaska	LAX 17:00	SFO 18:21	22%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 469 United Flight history →	LAX 13:25	SFO 14:55	22%	11%	0.6%	77%
AS 1501 Alaska	LAX 07:15	SFO 08:35	23%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 3138 American Flight history →	LAX 17:31	SFO 19:03	23%	14%	0.6%	69%
UA 1245 United Flight history →	LAX 11:55	SFO 13:34	25%	13%	0.6%	79%
OO 6276 SkyWest	LAX 14:01	SFO 15:32	26%	14%	0.8%	no record
UA 2019 United Flight history →	LAX 16:14	SFO 17:42	26%	16%	0.6%	68%
UA 1372 United Flight history →	LAX 07:30	SFO 09:06	27%	8%	0.6%	49%
AA 1110 American	LAX 11:02	SFO 12:34	28%	11%	0.6%	no record
AS 91 Alaska	LAX 14:53	SFO 16:13	28%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 1817 Southwest	LAX 12:01	SFO 13:29	28%	13%	0.6%	no record
UA 2199 United	LAX 10:57	SFO 12:28	30%	13%	0.6%	no record
UA 1905 United	LAX 09:33	SFO 11:17	30%	12%	0.6%	no record
DL 689 Delta	LAX 12:02	SFO 13:25	30%	10%	0.8%	no record
WN 1162 Southwest	LAX 14:01	SFO 15:28	31%	14%	0.6%	no record
F9 2857 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 08:41	SFO 10:17	33%	14%	3.0%	50%
AA 6277 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:45	SFO 11:16	33%	13%	0.9%	63%
AS 1406 Alaska	LAX 13:54	SFO 15:15	36%	12%	0.7%	no record
WN 2504 Southwest	LAX 10:01	SFO 11:28	37%	15%	0.6%	no record
DL 2267 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:25	SFO 15:44	39%	13%	0.8%	50%
DL 1715 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:20	SFO 10:42	39%	10%	0.9%	52%
AS 519 Alaska	LAX 08:19	SFO 09:39	40%	11%	0.7%	no record
AS 539 Alaska	LAX 10:00	SFO 11:20	43%	15%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON