Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2520 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 2520 LAX 06:06 → SJC 07:30 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2509 LAX 13:21 → SJC 14:44 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2520 Southwest	LAX 06:06	SJC 07:30	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
OO 3849 SkyWest	LAX 14:24	SJC 15:52	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1045 Southwest	LAX 09:21	SJC 10:44	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 3847 SkyWest	LAX 07:54	SJC 09:22	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1380 Delta	LAX 09:28	SJC 10:49	10%	3%	1.2%	no record
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 12:57	SJC 14:12	10%	4%	0.6%	90%
WN 3044 Southwest	LAX 11:36	SJC 12:59	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 1359 Delta	LAX 16:07	SJC 17:28	14%	6%	1.2%	no record
WN 2510 Southwest	LAX 15:01	SJC 16:24	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 2509 Southwest	LAX 13:21	SJC 14:44	16%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON