Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2906 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–13%.

Safest bet that day DL 2906 LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 1647 LAX 13:10 → SLC 16:03 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2906 Delta Flight history →	LAX 05:35	SLC 08:30	4%	2%	0.4%	96%
WN 1378 Southwest	LAX 08:26	SLC 11:30	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1318 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:15	SLC 10:10	7%	3%	0.4%	92%
OO 555 SkyWest	LAX 16:36	SLC 19:43	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 4629 SkyWest	LAX 10:28	SLC 13:37	12%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 1434 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:55	SLC 12:45	12%	3%	0.4%	92%
DL 2311 Delta Flight history →	LAX 17:05	SLC 19:58	13%	4%	0.4%	78%
DL 1194 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:41	SLC 14:30	14%	3%	0.4%	90%
DL 1647 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:10	SLC 16:03	15%	4%	0.4%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON