Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1276 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1276 LAX 07:01 → SMF 08:34 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4627 LAX 16:00 → SMF 17:33 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1276 Southwest	LAX 07:01	SMF 08:34	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 5537 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:31	SMF 11:18	9%	5%	0.6%	92%
DL 3700 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 07:10	SMF 08:41	10%	4%	0.6%	74%
DL 3755 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:05	SMF 10:37	10%	5%	0.6%	95%
UA 5858 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:30	SMF 18:06	11%	6%	0.6%	92%
OO 6278 SkyWest	LAX 16:41	SMF 18:17	11%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 3712 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:38	SMF 18:11	12%	6%	0.6%	88%
OO 6279 SkyWest	LAX 09:34	SMF 11:11	12%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 313 SkyWest	LAX 13:30	SMF 15:09	12%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 134 SkyWest	LAX 12:02	SMF 13:41	12%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 2514 Southwest	LAX 10:01	SMF 11:33	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 685 Southwest	LAX 17:02	SMF 18:35	17%	8%	0.5%	no record
WN 2515 Southwest	LAX 12:06	SMF 13:39	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 480 Southwest	LAX 14:51	SMF 16:23	18%	7%	0.5%	no record
F9 4627 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 16:00	SMF 17:33	26%	11%	1.0%	90%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON