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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 694 at 06:41, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 694 Southwest LAX 06:41 STL 12:19 6% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:02 → MSP 05:34DL 430 3h 31m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → STL 10:43DL 1289 8h 41m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455 5h 58m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 3h 19m Minneapolis MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224 8h 35m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:03 → DFW 05:21AA 2490 2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:44 → STL 09:45AA 3333 7h 42m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 1h 48m Houston IAH 08:00 → STL 10:07UA 6214 · flown by Mesa 7h 16m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAX 05:30 → DTW 12:56DL 2399 3h 49m Detroit DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822 9h 54m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:45 → DTW 17:08DL 494 2h 52m Detroit DTW 20:00 → STL 20:37DL 1541 8h 52m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAX 08:05 → ATL 15:41DL 782 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 19:16 → STL 20:05DL 2833 10h 00m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:50 → DTW 19:14DL 802 46m Detroit DTW 20:00 → STL 20:37DL 1541 6h 47m 67% 58%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:45 → ORD 17:04UA 2113 51m Chicago ORD 17:55 → STL 19:23UA 4412 · flown by GoJet 6h 38m 63% 34%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 09:00 → SEA 11:52AS 482 46m Seattle SEA 12:38 → STL 18:25AS 672 7h 25m 24% 18%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON