Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 5379 at 10:26, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5379 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 10:26	SUN 13:45	12%	6%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hailey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hailey is 1 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318	3h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:25 → SUN 14:31DL 3689 · flown by SkyWest	6h 16m	99%	91%
Alaska Details →	LAX 10:00 → SEA 12:48AS 798	3h 37m Seattle	SEA 16:25 → SUN 19:01AS 2322 · flown by Horizon	8h 01m	98%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LAX 12:47 → SEA 15:33AS 1305	52m Seattle	SEA 16:25 → SUN 19:01AS 2322 · flown by Horizon	5h 14m	65%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON