tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Bush, leaving 00:51, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Tampa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 49% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 392 United LAX 09:34 TPA 17:32 18% 6% 0.7% no record
DL 749 Delta Flight history → LAX 10:11 TPA 18:05 22% 5% 0.8% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:02 → MSP 05:34DL 430 1h 41m Minneapolis MSP 07:15 → TPA 11:26DL 2301 8h 24m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491 1h 13m Houston IAH 07:25 → TPA 10:45UA 1353 6h 54m 95% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 1h 27m Minneapolis MSP 13:19 → TPA 17:32DL 2264 8h 17m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:03 → DFW 05:21AA 2490 1h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:14 → TPA 11:01AA 2516 7h 58m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:08 → PHL 08:37AA 2010 1h 58m Philadelphia PHL 10:35 → TPA 13:20AA 2015 10h 12m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413 1h 25m Minneapolis MSP 18:15 → TPA 22:26DL 2385 8h 11m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703 3h 26m Denver DEN 13:55 → TPA 19:33UA 2375 9h 33m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:45 → DTW 17:08DL 494 2h 51m Detroit DTW 19:59 → TPA 22:35DL 1355 9h 50m 98% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAX 10:11 → PHL 19:00AA 738 47m Philadelphia PHL 19:47 → TPA 22:30AA 2322 9h 19m 60% 44%
UnitedDetails → LAX 11:15 → EWR 19:30UA 1981 59m Newark EWR 20:29 → TPA 23:19UA 1505 9h 04m 61% 40%
JetBlueDetails → LAX 10:47 → FLL 18:59B6 1700 46m Fort Lauderdale FLL 19:45 → TPA 20:57B6 1905 7h 10m 49% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON