tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 6286 at 11:04, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 6286 SkyWest LAX 11:04 TUL 16:21 13% 6% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:03 → DFW 05:21AA 2490 1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:17 → TUL 08:37AA 4063 · flown by Envoy 6h 34m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703 3h 11m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 7h 29m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:46AA 971 2h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:34 → TUL 09:55AA 2348 7h 24m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 10h 04m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654 3h 23m Houston IAH 14:35 → TUL 16:15UA 4239 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 30m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → LAX 07:12 → CLT 15:05AA 1952 3h 20m Charlotte CLT 18:25 → TUL 19:58AA 2662 10h 46m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → LAX 10:55 → DEN 14:27UA 2061 3h 10m Denver DEN 17:37 → TUL 20:27UA 1937 7h 32m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → LAX 06:00 → DFW 11:15AA 2811 2h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:10 → TUL 15:30AA 2851 7h 30m 99% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON