Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 6299 at 10:01, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 6299 SkyWest	LAX 10:01	XNA 15:33	17%	8%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318	3h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:31 → XNA 17:22DL 3620 · flown by SkyWest	8h 07m	99%	89%
American Details →	LAX 06:00 → DFW 11:15AA 2811	2h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:06 → XNA 15:27AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	7h 27m	99%	86%
United Details →	LAX 00:51 → IAH 06:12UA 491	3h 23m Houston	IAH 09:35 → XNA 11:12UA 4297 · flown by CommuteAir	8h 21m	100%	85%
United Details →	LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654	3h 20m Houston	IAH 14:32 → XNA 16:15UA 4062 · flown by Mesa	8h 30m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	LAX 08:05 → ATL 15:41DL 782	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 19:35 → XNA 20:31DL 1710	10h 26m	99%	85%
American Details →	LAX 00:08 → PHL 08:37AA 2010	1h 51m Philadelphia	PHL 10:28 → XNA 12:31AA 5543 · flown by PSA	10h 23m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 17:14 → XNA 18:05DL 2771	10h 05m	99%	84%
United Details →	LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703	3h 01m Denver	DEN 13:30 → XNA 16:25UA 5641 · flown by SkyWest	7h 25m	99%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LAX 09:55 → SLC 12:45DL 1434	46m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:31 → XNA 17:22DL 3620 · flown by SkyWest	5h 27m	75%	67%
Delta Details →	LAX 11:00 → ATL 18:37DL 528	51m Atlanta	ATL 19:28 → XNA 20:24DL 5159 · flown by Endeavor	7h 26m	73%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON