Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 550 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–51%.

Safest bet that day DL 550 LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 3453 LGA 17:01 → ATL 19:29 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 550 Delta Flight history →	LGA 06:00	ATL 08:23	6%	2%	1.0%	91%
DL 342 Delta Flight history →	LGA 06:59	ATL 09:20	6%	2%	1.0%	94%
YX 4617 Republic	LGA 06:25	ATL 08:54	8%	2%	1.1%	no record
DL 364 Delta Flight history →	LGA 08:00	ATL 10:29	9%	4%	0.9%	92%
DL 992 Delta Flight history →	LGA 09:00	ATL 11:32	10%	4%	0.9%	87%
YX 4600 Republic	LGA 09:02	ATL 11:32	12%	4%	1.3%	no record
DL 989 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:00	ATL 12:28	13%	4%	0.9%	84%
DL 990 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:59	ATL 14:31	13%	5%	0.8%	83%
F9 3287 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 06:29	ATL 09:17	14%	7%	2.4%	63%
DL 974 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:00	ATL 18:02	14%	8%	0.7%	81%
DL 993 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:59	ATL 13:20	15%	4%	0.9%	83%
DL 988 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:59	ATL 16:30	15%	5%	0.7%	76%
DL 969 Delta Flight history →	LGA 16:00	ATL 19:07	16%	8%	0.7%	70%
YX 4349 Republic	LGA 12:38	ATL 15:09	16%	5%	1.0%	no record
DL 994 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:59	ATL 15:26	16%	5%	0.8%	82%
DL 975 Delta Flight history →	LGA 20:30	ATL 23:43	17%	9%	0.8%	68%
DL 968 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:00	ATL 20:24	18%	9%	0.7%	76%
AA 4607 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:00	ATL 16:31	20%	6%	1.0%	59%
DL 964 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:00	ATL 21:20	21%	10%	0.7%	71%
YX 4346 Republic	LGA 16:19	ATL 18:50	22%	9%	1.0%	no record
DL 970 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:59	ATL 22:24	23%	10%	0.8%	66%
YX 4348 Republic	LGA 18:33	ATL 21:03	31%	10%	1.1%	no record
F9 3453 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 17:01	ATL 19:29	51%	20%	1.9%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON