Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 5025 at 09:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 5025 LGA 09:30 → AVL 11:21 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest DL 4665 LGA 16:40 → AVL 18:32 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5025 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 09:30	AVL 11:21	9%	3%	0.8%	80%
AA 4418 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:11	AVL 15:17	11%	3%	0.8%	76%
DL 4665 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 16:40	AVL 18:32	20%	5%	0.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON