Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4488 LGA 12:07 → BGR 13:50 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest YX 4353 LGA 15:57 → BGR 17:40 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4488 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 12:07	BGR 13:50	14%	3%	1.3%	87%
YX 4353 Republic	LGA 15:57	BGR 17:40	21%	7%	1.0%	no record
DL 5254 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 09:45	BGR 11:23	15%	7%	4.6%	85%
DL 5010 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 14:37	BGR 16:21	27%	14%	4.9%	73%
DL 5396 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 21:41	BGR 23:22	34%	14%	9.0%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON