Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2738 at 06:38 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 2738 LGA 06:38 → BNA 07:52 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2527 LGA 19:46 → BNA 21:01 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2738 Southwest	LGA 06:38	BNA 07:52	7%	2%	2.0%	no record
DL 5638 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:58	BNA 08:21	11%	3%	1.6%	90%
WN 3199 Southwest	LGA 09:43	BNA 10:58	17%	3%	1.6%	no record
AA 4481 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:57	BNA 13:36	18%	5%	1.6%	70%
YX 4370 Republic	LGA 08:53	BNA 10:16	18%	4%	1.8%	no record
DL 2748 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:55	BNA 15:31	18%	7%	1.0%	82%
YX 5617 Republic	LGA 10:32	BNA 11:57	21%	5%	1.6%	no record
AA 4380 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:03	BNA 16:40	23%	7%	1.2%	65%
AA 980 American	LGA 20:20	BNA 21:47	29%	13%	1.1%	no record
DL 1010 Delta	LGA 19:47	BNA 21:04	33%	13%	1.0%	no record
WN 4797 Southwest	LGA 16:36	BNA 17:51	40%	13%	1.1%	no record
WN 2527 Southwest	LGA 19:46	BNA 21:01	40%	14%	1.2%	no record
DL 5438 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 10:30	BNA 12:00	22%	10%	1.9%	78%
DL 4723 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 19:15	BNA 21:00	37%	21%	20.8%	63%
DL 5002 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 17:27	BNA 19:19	38%	18%	15.1%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON