Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4394 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–42%.

Safest bet that day YX 4394 LGA 06:05 → BOS 07:19 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4724 LGA 17:25 → BOS 18:39 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4394 Republic	LGA 06:05	BOS 07:19	5%	2%	1.7%	no record
DL 5793 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:59	BOS 08:23	6%	2%	2.0%	96%
YX 5696 Republic	LGA 06:15	BOS 07:29	7%	3%	2.0%	no record
DL 5759 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:00	BOS 09:19	10%	3%	1.9%	88%
YX 4628 Republic	LGA 08:56	BOS 10:21	12%	4%	1.9%	no record
DL 5728 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:00	BOS 11:23	17%	5%	1.9%	86%
YX 5591 Republic	LGA 09:14	BOS 10:28	17%	5%	1.8%	no record
DL 5745 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:00	BOS 12:22	18%	5%	1.8%	81%
AA 1050 American	LGA 09:56	BOS 11:08	20%	6%	1.9%	no record
DL 5761 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 12:00	BOS 13:21	20%	6%	1.4%	80%
DL 5758 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:00	BOS 14:23	22%	8%	1.3%	80%
DL 5739 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:59	BOS 15:23	25%	11%	1.5%	80%
AA 1571 American	LGA 11:30	BOS 12:42	25%	9%	2.2%	no record
DL 5727 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:00	BOS 16:33	29%	13%	1.4%	63%
DL 5819 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:00	BOS 17:37	32%	16%	1.7%	58%
DL 5800 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:01	BOS 21:15	33%	10%	2.0%	72%
AA 4430 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:30	BOS 16:44	33%	13%	1.5%	55%
AA 4768 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:13	BOS 20:27	36%	14%	2.0%	63%
DL 5738 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:00	BOS 19:40	36%	15%	2.0%	65%
DL 5725 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:00	BOS 18:40	36%	13%	2.2%	69%
DL 5746 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:59	BOS 20:45	37%	16%	2.0%	57%
AA 4724 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:25	BOS 18:39	42%	13%	2.0%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON