Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4738 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 4738 LGA 09:10 → BUF 10:38 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AA 843 LGA 15:51 → BUF 17:18 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4738 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:10	BUF 10:38	13%	3%	1.4%	75%
AA 4521 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:29	BUF 21:07	22%	10%	1.8%	74%
DL 5792 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:19	BUF 17:47	25%	9%	1.8%	81%
AA 843 American	LGA 15:51	BUF 17:18	31%	15%	1.7%	no record
DL 5366 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 07:45	BUF 09:13	17%	6%	2.4%	83%
DL 5362 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 12:18	BUF 13:50	20%	6%	6.7%	80%
DL 5380 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 15:45	BUF 17:30	34%	19%	11.1%	66%
DL 5397 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 21:59	BUF 23:32	39%	20%	15.3%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON