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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711 7h 01m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231 2h 20m Detroit DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546 5h 42m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:25 → DTW 11:24DL 1078 3h 41m Detroit DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480 7h 16m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799 7h 53m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:59 → BOS 08:23DL 5793 · flown by Republic 2h 47m Boston BOS 11:10 → BWI 12:53DL 5668 · flown by Republic 5h 54m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → LGA 14:55 → MSP 17:06DL 2349 2h 39m Minneapolis MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918 8h 18m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 3h 02m Chicago ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653 7h 47m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → LGA 11:10 → MSP 13:10DL 2409 1h 31m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 7h 05m 94% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LGA 15:25 → ORD 17:20UA 1504 58m Chicago ORD 18:18 → BWI 21:25UA 1557 6h 00m 72% 53%
AmericanDetails → LGA 17:00 → MIA 20:00AA 3135 1h 12m Miami MIA 21:12 → BWI 23:52AA 3216 6h 52m 71% 51%
DeltaDetails → LGA 18:00 → BOS 19:40DL 5738 · flown by Republic 55m Boston BOS 20:35 → BWI 22:29DL 5851 · flown by Republic 4h 29m 62% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON