tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Bozeman on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 3h 05m Minneapolis MSP 10:58 → BZN 12:31DL 2946 8h 31m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → BZN 13:11DL 406 9h 11m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084 1h 44m Charlotte CLT 09:42 → BZN 12:23AA 2415 8h 23m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 1h 21m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 7h 34m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → LGA 10:00 → DEN 12:20UA 716 1h 24m Denver DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513 7h 33m 94% 83%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23AA 1597 3h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:14 → BZN 15:16AA 947 10h 46m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → LGA 07:23 → ORD 09:09AA 392 1h 16m Chicago ORD 10:25 → BZN 13:06AA 1080 7h 43m 92% 79%
UnitedDetails → LGA 13:28 → ORD 15:00UA 1967 1h 47m Chicago ORD 16:47 → BZN 19:05UA 1920 7h 37m 90% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON