Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4506 at 12:25 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Safest bet that day AA 4506 LGA 12:25 → CAE 14:31 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest YX 4619 LGA 20:30 → CAE 22:35 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4506 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 12:25	CAE 14:31	18%	5%	1.3%	77%
YX 4619 Republic	LGA 20:30	CAE 22:35	29%	10%	1.4%	no record
DL 5089 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 13:15	CAE 15:25	30%	14%	3.8%	70%
DL 5057 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 20:59	CAE 23:16	34%	18%	9.3%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON