Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 4675 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 13:16	CHA 15:23	17%	5%	0.7%	74%
DL 5276 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 20:06	CHA 22:13	22%	8%	0.8%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chattanooga on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → CHA 11:26DL 1737	5h 26m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 13:13 → CHA 14:02DL 3141	6h 02m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:59 → ATL 13:20DL 993	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 16:49 → CHA 17:45DL 3124	6h 46m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 14:24 → CHA 15:23DL 4925 · flown by Endeavor	6h 23m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	LGA 13:59 → ATL 16:30DL 988	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 19:36 → CHA 20:32DL 1722	6h 33m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:25 → DTW 11:24DL 1078	1h 33m Detroit	DTW 12:57 → CHA 14:43DL 5117 · flown by Endeavor	5h 18m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	LGA 11:59 → ATL 14:31DL 990	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → CHA 18:44DL 5376 · flown by Endeavor	6h 45m	99%	82%
American Details →	LGA 07:28 → DFW 10:03AA 1987	2h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:24 → CHA 15:38AA 2037	8h 10m	98%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON