Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4602 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–29%.

Safest bet that day YX 4602 LGA 09:00 → CHS 11:09 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 4561 LGA 20:19 → CHS 22:28 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4602 Republic	LGA 09:00	CHS 11:09	17%	4%	1.8%	no record
DL 2013 Delta	LGA 08:34	CHS 10:34	19%	4%	1.7%	no record
YX 4567 Republic	LGA 14:38	CHS 16:46	23%	7%	1.8%	no record
DL 1404 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:29	CHS 14:47	26%	6%	1.3%	68%
YX 4561 Republic	LGA 20:19	CHS 22:28	29%	9%	2.1%	no record
DL 5437 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:30	CHS 10:44	17%	7%	3.6%	83%
DL 4676 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 19:32	CHS 22:02	36%	22%	9.4%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON