Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4533 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–27%.

Safest bet that day YX 4533 LGA 08:15 → CLE 10:06 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 4514 LGA 17:44 → CLE 19:29 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4533 Republic	LGA 08:15	CLE 10:06	10%	4%	2.4%	no record
YX 5767 Republic	LGA 13:29	CLE 15:14	17%	6%	1.6%	no record
YX 5773 Republic	LGA 10:49	CLE 12:34	17%	6%	2.1%	no record
YX 4378 Republic	LGA 12:30	CLE 14:15	18%	5%	1.8%	no record
YX 4514 Republic	LGA 17:44	CLE 19:29	27%	12%	1.7%	no record
DL 5190 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 07:59	CLE 09:47	16%	7%	4.5%	84%
DL 5045 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 10:25	CLE 12:14	20%	10%	3.9%	80%
DL 5242 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 13:40	CLE 15:34	24%	9%	4.6%	76%
DL 4974 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 20:30	CLE 22:35	33%	17%	13.7%	67%
DL 5194 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 17:14	CLE 19:19	34%	17%	6.1%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON