Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4604 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25%.

Safest bet that day YX 4604 LGA 06:58 → CMH 08:52 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5681 LGA 19:55 → CMH 22:03 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4604 Republic	LGA 06:58	CMH 08:52	6%	2%	1.6%	no record
DL 5686 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 07:30	CMH 09:19	10%	3%	1.6%	86%
YX 4381 Republic	LGA 11:05	CMH 12:59	15%	4%	1.1%	no record
AA 4684 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:11	CMH 15:06	16%	5%	1.0%	76%
DL 5675 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:25	CMH 16:22	18%	6%	1.0%	82%
DL 5669 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:43	CMH 13:37	18%	5%	1.2%	79%
AA 4462 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:29	CMH 19:38	25%	9%	1.1%	77%
DL 5671 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:30	CMH 19:42	25%	9%	1.1%	75%
YX 4624 Republic	LGA 20:31	CMH 22:26	25%	9%	1.1%	no record
DL 5681 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:55	CMH 22:03	25%	9%	1.2%	71%
DL 4649 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 11:56	CMH 13:45	44%	18%	6.2%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON