Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 5770 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 5770 LGA 06:05 → DCA 07:23 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 4736 LGA 17:31 → DCA 19:12 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5770 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:05	DCA 07:23	6%	2%	1.4%	89%
AA 4487 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:30	DCA 07:58	8%	2%	1.4%	85%
AA 4456 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:17	DCA 09:48	12%	4%	1.6%	36%
DL 5742 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:50	DCA 10:15	13%	4%	1.4%	83%
AA 4754 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:12	DCA 10:40	14%	4%	1.5%	61%
YX 4595 Republic	LGA 10:32	DCA 12:00	17%	5%	1.9%	no record
DL 5749 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:20	DCA 12:42	20%	6%	1.6%	78%
AA 4773 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:29	DCA 14:58	22%	7%	1.4%	76%
DL 5709 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:40	DCA 16:19	27%	8%	1.6%	61%
AA 4473 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:54	DCA 21:23	27%	11%	1.6%	91%worse than usual
YX 4691 Republic	LGA 15:20	DCA 16:49	27%	7%	1.2%	no record
DL 5717 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:15	DCA 18:59	28%	12%	1.8%	62%
DL 5724 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:15	DCA 20:59	29%	13%	1.9%	50%
AA 4736 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:31	DCA 19:12	30%	11%	1.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON