Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2531 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 2531 LGA 06:57 → DEN 09:07 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2534 LGA 17:36 → DEN 19:45 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2531 Southwest	LGA 06:57	DEN 09:07	6%	2%	1.6%	no record
UA 644 United	LGA 07:30	DEN 09:43	10%	3%	1.1%	no record
DL 751 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:45	DEN 09:53	12%	3%	1.1%	84%
UA 716 United Flight history →	LGA 10:00	DEN 12:20	14%	4%	0.9%	95%
UA 2200 United Flight history →	LGA 12:29	DEN 14:43	14%	4%	0.8%	87%
WN 4644 Southwest	LGA 10:32	DEN 12:39	20%	4%	1.4%	no record
UA 2028 United	LGA 15:30	DEN 17:41	24%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 2046 United Flight history →	LGA 18:29	DEN 21:02	24%	10%	0.7%	71%
DL 710 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:50	DEN 21:35	24%	11%	0.9%	61%
UA 2834 United Flight history →	LGA 16:59	DEN 19:35	25%	8%	0.7%	60%
DL 716 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:20	DEN 16:41	25%	7%	0.9%	71%
WN 430 Southwest	LGA 14:07	DEN 16:14	32%	7%	1.0%	no record
WN 2534 Southwest	LGA 17:36	DEN 19:45	38%	11%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510	1h 02m Minneapolis	MSP 08:55 → DEN 10:03DL 2849	6h 03m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	LGA 07:55 → MSP 09:53DL 2473	1h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → DEN 12:05DL 2927	6h 10m	93%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON