Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1597 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 1597 LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 3423 LGA 20:33 → DFW 23:10 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1597 American Flight history →	LGA 06:30	DFW 09:23	8%	4%	1.9%	89%
DL 873 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:00	DFW 09:35	10%	5%	1.5%	78%
AA 1987 American Flight history →	LGA 08:35	DFW 11:25	14%	6%	2.2%	81%
AA 2088 American Flight history →	LGA 11:08	DFW 13:47	15%	6%	1.9%	85%
DL 856 Delta Flight history →	LGA 09:30	DFW 12:09	15%	4%	1.2%	82%
AA 3289 American Flight history →	LGA 09:00	DFW 11:38	16%	5%	1.9%	77%
DL 869 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:29	DFW 15:10	16%	6%	1.0%	75%
AA 3113 American	LGA 10:28	DFW 13:11	18%	7%	2.0%	no record
AA 1609 American Flight history →	LGA 13:08	DFW 15:58	19%	8%	1.5%	71%
AA 1056 American Flight history →	LGA 14:00	DFW 17:05	19%	9%	1.5%	65%
DL 846 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:00	DFW 18:01	21%	9%	1.1%	65%
AA 2178 American	LGA 14:57	DFW 17:37	24%	9%	1.6%	no record
AA 1608 American Flight history →	LGA 16:00	DFW 19:15	26%	9%	1.3%	63%
DL 352 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:55	DFW 22:02	30%	13%	1.2%	55%
AA 2092 American Flight history →	LGA 20:04	DFW 22:46	30%	11%	1.5%	59%
AA 2327 American Flight history →	LGA 17:29	DFW 20:15	34%	13%	1.3%	25%
AA 2238 American	LGA 18:57	DFW 21:39	39%	13%	1.6%	no record
AA 1043 American Flight history →	LGA 18:22	DFW 21:09	39%	13%	1.7%	61%
F9 3423 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 20:33	DFW 23:10	41%	12%	2.7%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON