tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Des Moines on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 4395 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 18:29 DSM 20:51 34% 16% 0.9% 67%
DL 4904 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record LGA 17:02 DSM 19:15 35% 18% 5.8% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:59 → ATL 09:20DL 342 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:25 → DSM 13:34DL 2094 7h 35m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 1h 10m Atlanta ATL 09:33 → DSM 10:45DL 1704 5h 45m 96% 90%
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:59 → ATL 13:20DL 993 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086 7h 53m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084 2h 35m Charlotte CLT 10:33 → DSM 12:07AA 2962 7h 07m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 1h 11m Chicago ORD 09:00 → DSM 10:22UA 466 5h 12m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 1h 07m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → DSM 10:14DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor 5h 14m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → LGA 12:29 → DEN 14:43UA 2200 2h 57m Denver DEN 17:40 → DSM 20:30UA 549 9h 01m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → LGA 11:10 → MSP 13:10DL 2409 2h 30m Minneapolis MSP 15:40 → DSM 16:54DL 4913 · flown by Endeavor 6h 44m 98% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON