Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1231 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 1231 LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 4414 LGA 17:05 → DTW 19:06 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1231 Delta Flight history →	LGA 06:05	DTW 07:55	6%	2%	1.3%	96%
YX 4355 Republic	LGA 06:44	DTW 08:43	8%	3%	1.4%	no record
DL 1823 Delta	LGA 07:37	DTW 09:24	11%	3%	1.2%	no record
DL 1078 Delta Flight history →	LGA 09:25	DTW 11:24	13%	3%	1.1%	90%
AA 4339 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:56	DTW 14:02	16%	6%	1.0%	73%
DL 308 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:29	DTW 16:34	19%	7%	1.0%	79%
DL 1122 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:55	DTW 14:51	21%	5%	1.0%	81%
DL 999 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:00	DTW 19:39	23%	10%	0.9%	74%
DL 1014 Delta Flight history →	LGA 20:30	DTW 22:51	24%	9%	1.1%	70%
AA 4414 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:05	DTW 19:06	28%	10%	1.0%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON