Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2465 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 2465 LGA 07:20 → FLL 10:22 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest B6 471 LGA 15:40 → FLL 18:53 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2465 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:20	FLL 10:22	14%	4%	1.1%	81%
AA 968 American	LGA 08:17	FLL 11:29	14%	6%	1.5%	no record
B6 1471 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 07:30	FLL 10:35	15%	6%	1.6%	82%
DL 1181 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:55	FLL 13:54	19%	6%	1.1%	75%
B6 271 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 08:05	FLL 11:01	19%	7%	1.3%	80%
DL 2308 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:29	FLL 22:52	27%	11%	1.1%	66%
DL 2321 Delta Flight history →	LGA 16:30	FLL 19:56	29%	10%	1.1%	66%
B6 1371 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 12:00	FLL 15:03	30%	11%	1.2%	61%
AA 2836 American	LGA 15:54	FLL 18:58	33%	12%	1.4%	no record
B6 471 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 15:40	FLL 18:53	38%	14%	1.3%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON