Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 15–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 5712 LGA 08:59 → GRR 11:09 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 5683 LGA 20:59 → GRR 23:11 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5712 Republic	LGA 08:59	GRR 11:09	15%	4%	1.8%	no record
AA 4775 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:18	GRR 12:28	19%	5%	1.8%	50%
YX 5683 Republic	LGA 20:59	GRR 23:11	25%	11%	1.4%	no record
DL 5104 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 14:45	GRR 17:07	28%	15%	5.1%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON