Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 5781 LGA 08:15 → GSO 10:03 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4574 LGA 15:14 → GSO 17:04 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5781 Republic	LGA 08:15	GSO 10:03	14%	4%	2.3%	no record
AA 4720 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:29	GSO 10:17	14%	4%	2.0%	59%
AA 4574 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:14	GSO 17:04	22%	9%	1.4%	67%
DL 5125 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 07:30	GSO 09:20	17%	4%	5.8%	83%
DL 5107 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 16:15	GSO 18:22	31%	12%	7.7%	69%
DL 5118 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 20:35	GSO 22:51	36%	24%	22.0%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON