Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4581 at 08:12 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–31%.

Safest bet that day YX 4581 LGA 08:12 → GSP 10:27 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4787 LGA 20:27 → GSP 22:39 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4581 Republic	LGA 08:12	GSP 10:27	16%	4%	1.6%	no record
AA 4534 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:13	GSP 17:19	28%	6%	1.3%	78%
AA 4787 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:27	GSP 22:39	31%	10%	1.6%	71%
DL 4994 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:04	GSP 10:12	18%	4%	5.2%	82%
DL 4996 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 20:15	GSP 22:35	29%	15%	11.6%	71%
DL 5463 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 12:40	GSP 14:51	30%	12%	3.4%	70%
DL 5004 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 15:10	GSP 17:30	34%	14%	5.4%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON