tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 6242 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record LGA 10:29 IAD 11:55 18% 7% 4.3% 82%
UA 6244 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record LGA 19:28 IAD 20:55 31% 22% 14.7% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → IAD 13:06DL 8965 7h 06m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:59 → ATL 09:20DL 342 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 7h 02m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231 55m Detroit DTW 08:50 → IAD 10:23DL 2884 4h 18m 93% 84%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 3h 03m Chicago ORD 10:52 → IAD 13:49UA 1486 7h 39m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:25 → DTW 11:24DL 1078 3h 44m Detroit DTW 15:08 → IAD 16:41DL 1787 7h 16m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:59 → ATL 13:20DL 993 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902 7h 31m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 7h 46m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → LGA 12:59 → ATL 15:26DL 994 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 19:15 → IAD 21:03DL 1309 8h 04m 99% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LGA 15:25 → ORD 17:20UA 1504 52m Chicago ORD 18:12 → IAD 21:22UA 2202 5h 57m 67% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON