Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 575 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 575 LGA 06:00 → IAH 08:31 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1179 LGA 17:58 → IAH 20:30 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 575 United	LGA 06:00	IAH 08:31	10%	3%	1.0%	no record
DL 2140 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:05	IAH 09:49	11%	4%	1.1%	89%
UA 2371 United Flight history →	LGA 07:49	IAH 10:20	13%	3%	1.0%	93%
UA 2617 United Flight history →	LGA 10:15	IAH 13:06	18%	5%	0.9%	86%
UA 344 United	LGA 12:46	IAH 15:17	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 2930 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:50	IAH 16:44	20%	8%	0.8%	73%
UA 2674 United Flight history →	LGA 14:00	IAH 17:01	21%	7%	0.7%	64%
UA 1794 United Flight history →	LGA 15:38	IAH 18:46	22%	8%	0.6%	62%
DL 2099 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:50	IAH 13:32	22%	6%	1.0%	76%
UA 2133 United	LGA 20:36	IAH 23:38	24%	9%	0.7%	no record
DL 2109 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:29	IAH 21:44	27%	14%	0.8%	65%
UA 1179 United	LGA 17:58	IAH 20:30	30%	10%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON