Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4387 at 09:45 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–32%.

Safest bet that day YX 4387 LGA 09:45 → IND 12:09 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4427 LGA 18:59 → IND 21:16 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4387 Republic	LGA 09:45	IND 12:09	11%	4%	1.2%	no record
DL 5642 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:45	IND 14:06	15%	6%	1.2%	85%
DL 5646 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:43	IND 17:13	16%	8%	1.1%	83%
YX 4409 Republic	LGA 14:32	IND 16:49	21%	9%	1.1%	no record
DL 5635 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:42	IND 20:24	23%	10%	1.1%	74%
YX 5673 Republic	LGA 20:05	IND 22:22	25%	11%	1.1%	no record
AA 4458 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:59	IND 21:29	29%	12%	1.2%	75%
AA 4427 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:59	IND 21:16	32%	12%	1.1%	66%
DL 4883 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:15	IND 10:30	15%	2%	4.2%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON