tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 9h 12m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 3h 37m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 10h 23m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → LGA 07:55 → MSP 09:53DL 2473 3h 17m Minneapolis MSP 13:10 → LAX 14:52DL 2974 9h 57m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 10h 17m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → LGA 07:45 → DEN 09:53DL 751 2h 36m Denver DEN 12:29 → LAX 13:56DL 2148 9h 11m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501 8h 55m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:00 → ATL 12:28DL 989 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 15:40 → LAX 17:26DL 301 10h 26m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → LGA 12:59 → ATL 15:26DL 994 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 18:48 → LAX 20:16DL 996 10h 17m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LGA 13:28 → ORD 15:00UA 1967 47m Chicago ORD 15:47 → LAX 18:20UA 576 7h 52m 61% 47%
JetBlueDetails → LGA 12:00 → FLL 15:03B6 1371 49m Fort Lauderdale FLL 15:52 → LAX 18:28B6 101 9h 28m 62% 47%
AmericanDetails → LGA 15:30 → BOS 16:44AA 4430 · flown by Republic 49m Boston BOS 17:33 → LAX 20:55AA 1578 8h 25m 62% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON