Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 4644 at 18:40, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4644 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:40	LIT 21:13	31%	13%	1.3%	68%
DL 4902 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 17:29	LIT 19:45	37%	18%	6.4%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Little Rock is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 10:31 → LIT 11:03DL 3040	6h 03m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 14:40 → LIT 15:12DL 3027	7h 12m	99%	89%
American Details →	LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23AA 1597	2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:38 → LIT 12:58AA 3898 · flown by Envoy	7h 28m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:59 → ATL 13:20DL 993	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 17:20 → LIT 17:55DL 3025	7h 56m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	LGA 11:59 → ATL 14:31DL 990	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 17:55 → LIT 18:31DL 2061	7h 32m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	LGA 15:00 → ATL 18:02DL 974	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → LIT 21:34DL 2701	7h 34m	96%	83%
American Details →	LGA 11:08 → DFW 13:47AA 2088	1h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:39 → LIT 16:59AA 4309 · flown by Envoy	6h 51m	94%	79%
American Details →	LGA 14:31 → CLT 16:53AA 2033	3h 32m Charlotte	CLT 20:25 → LIT 21:38AA 3692 · flown by Envoy	8h 07m	95%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON