Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 572 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 572 LGA 07:30 → MCI 09:37 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest WN 1163 LGA 16:21 → MCI 18:23 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 572 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:30	MCI 09:37	8%	4%	1.7%	82%
WN 519 Southwest	LGA 08:31	MCI 10:34	9%	3%	1.9%	no record
DL 2068 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:30	MCI 17:59	22%	11%	1.0%	60%
DL 563 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:55	MCI 22:21	26%	14%	1.3%	67%
WN 1163 Southwest	LGA 16:21	MCI 18:23	29%	12%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON