Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1164 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 1164 LGA 07:00 → MCO 09:43 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 399 LGA 14:29 → MCO 17:28 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1164 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MCO 09:43	7%	3%	1.4%	90%
B6 599 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MCO 09:52	10%	4%	2.1%	89%
AA 3038 American	LGA 07:22	MCO 10:06	11%	3%	1.8%	no record
DL 2564 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:49	MCO 14:42	16%	6%	1.5%	80%
B6 499 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 10:00	MCO 12:55	18%	8%	1.6%	65%
DL 2520 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:30	MCO 18:52	24%	11%	2.6%	62%
AA 1943 American Flight history →	LGA 14:38	MCO 17:19	26%	11%	4.8%	67%
DL 2540 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:55	MCO 23:03	27%	13%	1.2%	59%
DL 2561 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:59	MCO 21:15	30%	14%	1.2%	68%
B6 399 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 14:29	MCO 17:28	31%	15%	4.4%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON