Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4430 at 07:19 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 4430 LGA 07:19 → MDW 08:36 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4845 LGA 17:46 → MDW 19:03 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4430 Southwest	LGA 07:19	MDW 08:36	11%	3%	2.4%	no record
WN 806 Southwest	LGA 08:59	MDW 10:15	15%	4%	2.1%	no record
WN 2542 Southwest	LGA 10:59	MDW 12:15	21%	5%	1.9%	no record
WN 4333 Southwest	LGA 12:31	MDW 13:48	22%	5%	1.8%	no record
WN 2544 Southwest	LGA 15:21	MDW 16:39	30%	9%	1.4%	no record
WN 4845 Southwest	LGA 17:46	MDW 19:03	40%	14%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON