Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4807 at 12:11 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 4807 LGA 12:11 → MEM 14:09 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 4696 LGA 20:17 → MEM 22:11 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4807 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 12:11	MEM 14:09	18%	4%	1.3%	78%
YX 5605 Republic	LGA 13:39	MEM 15:25	19%	5%	1.2%	no record
DL 5606 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:50	MEM 21:37	29%	9%	1.2%	85%worse than usual
AA 4696 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:17	MEM 22:11	30%	9%	1.4%	64%
DL 4903 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:40	MEM 10:36	18%	4%	6.9%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON