Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1249 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 1249 LGA 06:00 → MIA 09:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3088 LGA 18:26 → MIA 21:24 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1249 American Flight history →	LGA 06:00	MIA 09:15	6%	3%	1.7%	94%
DL 2347 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:10	MIA 10:19	11%	4%	1.5%	89%
AA 1530 American Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MIA 10:15	11%	3%	2.2%	88%
AA 970 American Flight history →	LGA 07:59	MIA 11:14	15%	4%	2.0%	86%
AA 3211 American Flight history →	LGA 09:28	MIA 12:45	19%	5%	1.8%	76%
AA 2378 American	LGA 11:10	MIA 14:14	22%	9%	1.5%	no record
DL 1538 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:15	MIA 14:24	23%	8%	1.1%	77%
DL 2300 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:59	MIA 18:30	27%	12%	1.2%	63%
AA 605 American Flight history →	LGA 13:21	MIA 16:29	29%	10%	1.6%	68%
DL 2382 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:55	MIA 23:22	30%	17%	1.8%	59%
AA 2525 American	LGA 15:43	MIA 18:47	33%	14%	1.5%	no record
AA 845 American	LGA 19:30	MIA 22:31	34%	17%	2.1%	no record
DL 1620 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:50	MIA 21:21	34%	15%	1.4%	58%
AA 3135 American Flight history →	LGA 17:00	MIA 20:00	38%	17%	2.3%	63%
AA 3088 American Flight history →	LGA 18:26	MIA 21:24	41%	18%	2.5%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON